💼 Fundamental Valuation & Price Targets
PRESETS:
Underlying Spot Price ($)
NVIDIA Corporation As of 2026-10-09
🐻 Bear Scenario Low Est · P25 P/E
$69.36 -44.4%
EPS: $2.55 × Multiple: 27.2x
Earnings miss + 25th percentile multiple compression
⚖️ Base Consensus Wall St Consensus
$92.02 -26.3%
EPS: $2.84 × Multiple: 32.4x
Mean analyst estimate × active forward multiple
🚀 Bull Scenario High Est · P75 P/E
$143.36 +14.9%
EPS: $3.20 × Multiple: 44.8x
Top-of-range beat + multiple expansion to 75th %ile
🎛️ Interactive Target Live Sliders
$92.02 -26.3%
EPS: $2.84 × Multiple: 32.4x
Adjust inputs using the interactive simulator below
🎯
Price Target Sensitivity Matrix (P/E Multiples vs. EPS Outcomes)
Interactive valuation grid displaying expected share price and % return relative to current spot price ($124.80)
− Downside ± Flat + Upside
📐
Valuation Cone vs. Options Implied Expected Move
Fundamental Bear/Base/Bull price trajectory compared against the derivatives market ±1σ IV volatility tunnel
📊
Earnings Revision Drift & Multiple Context
Momentum velocity of analyst upgrades/downgrades and 5-year multiple bands
Analyst Revision Momentum (PEAD): Strong Positive Momentum
30-DAY REVISIONS
+28 ▲ / 3 ▼
90-DAY REVISIONS
+38 ▲ / 5 ▼
5-Year Forward P/E Distribution: Trading Near 5Y Median
Min: 22.5x P25: 27.2x Median: 36.4x P75: 44.8x Max: 68.5x
Current Forward P/E: 32.4x PEG Ratio: 1.15
EXPECTED EPS GROWTH
+118.5%
ANALYSTS COVERING
44 Wall St Firms
🎛️
Interactive Multiple Expansion & Earnings Simulator
Adjust projected EPS and P/E multiples in real time to observe the exact fundamental price target and dollar return
$1.00 Wall St Consensus: $2.84 $6.00
3.0x Current Forward Multiple: 32.4x 60.0x
Calculated Target Formula:
$2.84 × 32.4x = $92.02
Implied Return vs Spot: -26.3%
Spot Reference: $124.80 Net Difference: -$32.78
📘 Quantitative Methodology & Mathematical Framework
1. The Capitalization Multiple & Rates Under the Gordon Growth framework, forward P/E is the inverse capitalization rate:
P/E = (1 - b) / (r - g)
Where r is the cost of equity and g is perpetual growth. When benchmark interest rates rise, r increases, compressing P/E multiples even if earnings hold firm.
2. Earnings Revision Drift (PEAD) Academic research demonstrates that the velocity and acceleration of consensus estimate revisions:
d(EPS) / dt > 0
exhibits persistent directional price momentum. Upward revision breadth signals sustained institutional capital inflows.
3. Options Volatility Cross-Check The derivatives market prices forward dispersion via At-The-Money Implied Volatility:
Expected Move ± 1σ = S × IV × √(T / 365)
Comparing fundamental P/E targets against the options tunnel shows whether the market currently considers the target realistic.